Crude oil prices could top $120 per barrel of Brent crude by the end of the year if fighting in the Middle East continues, RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft has warned, as quoted by Reuters.
“Maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is gravely imperiled by the Houthi advances,” the analyst said. The comments follow news reports of the Yemeni Houthis taking control of the Red Sea port of Mokha, which will make it possible to launch more direct attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and tankers in the Red Sea.
This adds to the escalation on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent crude and WTI both over $100 per barrel. Earlier today, Brent crude almost touched $110 per barrel, according to Reuters.
The latest oil price rally has prompted another surge in bond yields as inflation fears ran high, prompting investors to brace up for interest rate hikes by central banks in key markets. According to a fresh JP Morgan forecast, eight to nine developed economies may hike interest rates by the end of the year, including the United States, Japan, four central banks in Europe, including the European Central Bank, as well as Australia and New Zealand.
“The tightening is for now expected to remain shallow, but risks to our forecasts lean in the direction of more action in the face of resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and commodity price pressures,” the bank’s analysts said.
Asian economies are also feeling the pain, Bloomberg reported today, noting governments in the region will need to extend financial assistance for businesses and households amid climbing oil prices and a surge in diesel prices.
Relief is unlikely, judging by developments in the Middle East. President Trump said earlier this week the war will be over after the November elections, but many have doubts this will be the case as fighting continues and neither side mentions peace negotiations.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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