President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday that Iran had “informed” his administration it was in a “state of collapse” and urgently wanted the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
“Iran has just informed us that they are in a ‘State of Collapse.’ They want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!),” Trump wrote.
He did not say who in or from Iran conveyed the message or what exactly it entailed, and Iran’s own messaging told a different story…
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who wrapped up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Monday, blamed stalled negotiations on Washington’s “destructive habits” and “unreasonable demands.” Iran’s deputy defense minister said from Kyrgyzstan that the United States “is no longer in a position to impose its policies on independent nations.”
Oil prices ticked lower on the post, with Brent crude slipping from session highs above $111 a barrel before steadying.
Prices had already surged more than 3% earlier Tuesday, and are up roughly 55% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, as traders weighed Iran’s latest offer to reopen the waterway and the near-total blockade of normal shipping traffic.
The offer, passed to U.S. officials through Pakistani mediators, would see Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports — with nuclear talks pushed to a later date.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Monday that Trump met with his national security team to discuss the proposal, but stopped short of saying the administration was “considering” it.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “better than what we thought they were going to submit,” but made clear it didn’t go far enough. “That fundamental issue still has to be confronted,” Rubio said, referring to Iran’s nuclear program.
Nine weeks into the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Before the war, roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG transited the waterway daily. Goldman Sachs now puts Q4 Brent at $90 per barrel in its base case; Citi analysts have warned prices could reach $150 if flows stay disrupted through June.
Trump has repeatedly framed Iran’s position as one of desperation.
Whether Tuesday’s Truth Social post reflects a genuine back-channel signal from Tehran or another round of pressure messaging from the White House, a tactic Trump has deployed repeatedly throughout the nine-week conflict, remains unclear.
Iran hasn’t confirmed it.
And until something changes on the ground in the Strait, oil markets are unlikely to treat it as anything more than noise.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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