Oil prices rebounded in early Asian trading on Monday, recovering from sharp losses in the previous session as investors grew cautiously optimistic that potential talks between President Trump and President Xi could ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies and oil consumers.
At the time of writing, Brent was up 1.64% at $63.76, while WTI had risen 1.73% to $59.92. This rebound came after oil prices tumbled by more than 4% on Friday and hit their lowest level since early May.
The rebound follows a week of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Last Thursday, China expanded its export controls on rare earths, a move widely interpreted as a counter to Washington’s trade measures. In response, Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports bound for the United States and to introduce new export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1. The escalation rattled global markets and sent oil prices tumbling, but traders now appear to be betting that both sides will look for a diplomatic off-ramp at the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea, where the two leaders are expected to meet later this month.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the key question for markets is whether the new trade measures are ultimately implemented or if they remain negotiating tactics ahead of talks. “The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further—and possibly indefinite—extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May,” the bank wrote in a note.
Beyond the geopolitical headlines, Monday’s gains also reflect technical factors. Crude prices were deeply oversold after Friday’s selloff, prompting a wave of bargain-hunting among traders who viewed the drop as excessive. The bounce is more likely a sign investors are positioning for short-term stability rather than a sustained rally, with fundamentals still clouded by mixed signals from both demand and supply sides.
OPEC+ continues to follow a cautious production strategy, gradually unwinding voluntary cuts to prevent renewed oversupply. The group’s restraint has helped steady the market in recent weeks, even as global demand growth remains uncertain.
For now, oil markets remain delicately balanced between the hope of a diplomatic breakthrough and the risk of deeper economic fragmentation. If trade tensions ease and demand indicators stabilize, crude could find a firmer footing, but volatility will likely continue in the coming weeks.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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