Oil Steadies as Investors Await Outcome of Diplomatic Talks

Summary

Brent crude futures up 11 cents at $68.76 a barrel
Investors gauge risk of supply disruption following Iranian drills near Strait of Hormuz
Many markets closed due to Lunar New Year holiday

(Reuters) – Brent oil prices were largely stable on Tuesday, as investors braced for nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S., and trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks, both taking place in Geneva.

Brent crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.16%, at $68.76 a barrel at 1157 GMT, following a 1.33% gain on Monday.

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.86 a barrel, up 97 cents, or 1.54%, but the move included all of Monday’s price action as the contract did not have a settlement that day due to the Presidents Day holiday in the U.S.

Many Asian markets were closed on Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.

Investors are watching U.S.-Iran relations as any escalation or conflict could lead to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil export route, which would severely impact global oil exports.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks are also in focus because any peace resolution could see a lifting of sanctions, bringing Russian oil back to the mainstream market.

OIL PRICES SEEN DRIVEN BY DIPLOMATIC SIGNALS

“Market sentiment is closely tied to the tone and progress of these negotiations … sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

Oil prices are therefore likely to stay volatile, with sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals, Sachdeva added.

Washington and Tehran began indirect talks in Geneva on Tuesday focusing on their long-running nuclear dispute amid a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Iran’s supreme leader warned on Tuesday that any U.S. attempt to depose his government would fail.

Iran will close parts of the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday due to “security precautions” for shipping safety, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, as the Revolutionary Guards conduct military drills in the waterway.

Also in Geneva on Tuesday, Ukrainian and Russian officials are set to meet for a new round of U.S.-brokered peace talks, which the Kremlin said would likely focus on territory, the main sticking point.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue. The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday that it had struck the Ilsky refinery, while a drone attack was also reported at the port of Taman.

Elsewhere, oil production at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oil field is gradually increasing after an outage in January, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

Reporting by Robert Havrey in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and David Holmes