OPEC+ is inching toward a pivotal decision this weekend: whether to greenlight another 548,000 bpd in production hikes for September, effectively fast-tracking the return of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts a year ahead of schedule.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) already met last week and stopped short of recommending any fresh changes to quotas. But that was never really its job—it’s the full ministerial gathering this Sunday that holds the power to formalize the next move. Traders expecting September’s barrels to hit the water soon may finally get the clarity they’ve been waiting for.
Yet even if the expected increase in quota is approved, the bigger question looms: what happens next? And even if OPEC+ approves a quota hike, will that actually result in more barrels to market?
OPEC+ still has another 1.66 million bpd of sidelined supply technically scheduled to stay offline until end-2026. Delegates say the group is inclined to pause before touching it—but as this year’s accelerated rollout shows, plans can shift quickly, especially when market share is on the line.
At around $71 Brent, prices remain well below Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven. Riyadh’s Vision 2030 ambitions carry a hefty price tag, and analysts from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan warn that further weakness—potentially to $60—could strain OPEC+ coffers even more if Chinese demand continues to sputter.
Still, any aggressive moves to reclaim market share would need to be balanced against fragile prices and persistent underperformance from several member states. Not every hike makes it into real barrels.
Crude watchers will be closely tuned into Sunday’s meeting for signs of whether OPEC+ plans to revisit the remaining 1.66 million bpd—if not now, then when. Because until the group puts that question to bed, the specter of those idled barrels will continue to haunt the market.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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