OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday that it will keep oil production steady through the first quarter of 2026, as eight key producers reaffirmed their commitment to market stability amid a steady global economic outlook and what they described as healthy oil market fundamentals.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on January 4 to review global market conditions and outlook. The group reiterated its decision, first announced on November 2, 2025, to pause planned production increases in February and March 2026, citing seasonal demand patterns.
Following the meeting, OPEC+ produced the following production table for February 2026:
In a joint statement, the eight producers said current market conditions remain supportive, pointing to relatively low global inventories as a sign that the oil market is well balanced despite last year’s sharp decline in crude prices. Oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025, the steepest annual drop since the pandemic, as supply growth outpaced demand and concerns over a growing glut mounted.
The group also emphasized that the previously announced 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts could be returned to the market either in part or in full, depending on evolving market conditions, and only in a gradual manner. The producers stressed that flexibility remains central to their strategy, including the option to extend or reverse additional voluntary adjustments, such as the 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts announced in November 2023.
OPEC+ further reiterated its collective commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation. The producers confirmed that any overproduction since January 2024 will be fully compensated, with compliance and compensation to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions — including strains between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen and uncertainty surrounding Venezuela following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro — delegates said these developments did not alter the group’s near-term policy stance.
The eight OPEC+ countries agreed to continue holding monthly meetings to assess market conditions, compliance levels, and compensation progress. Their next meeting is scheduled for February 1, 2026.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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