OPEC is sticking to its view that the oil market will remain relatively tight through next year, with demand growth expected to continue outpacing non-OPEC+ supply additions despite months of war-related disruption and elevated prices.
According to OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday, crude production from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation averaged 33.13 million barrels per day in May, down 190,000 bpd from April based on secondary-source estimates.
The group left its global demand outlook largely unchanged, forecasting oil demand growth of 1.0 million bpd in 2026. Most of that growth is expected to come from Asia, particularly China, India, and other developing economies, where air travel, road fuel consumption, and manufacturing activity continue to support petroleum demand. OECD demand growth is expected to remain modest, with the United States doing most of the heavy lifting.
On the supply side, OPEC expects non-DoC production growth of about 600,000 bpd this year and another 600,000 bpd in 2027. Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina are expected to account for most of the new barrels in 2026, while Qatar joins that list next year.
That supply growth is notable, but it still falls short of projected demand gains. OPEC now estimates demand for crude from OPEC+ producers at 42.5 million bpd this year and 43.5 million bpd in 2027.
The bigger story may be inventories. OECD commercial stocks fell by 48.4 million barrels in April and remain well below historical averages.
OPEC’s latest outlook suggests demand continues to absorb most of the world’s incremental production.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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