In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team today, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, outlined that “oversold NYMEX natural gas trampoline[d]… higher” on Tuesday.
The report pointed out that the June natural gas contract closed at $3.427 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, and that this represented a 31.4¢, or 10.1 percent, increase.
“The six sessions ending Monday saw a 68¢ (-18 percent) re-pricing of the June natural gas contract, with Monday’s low within 0.1¢ of the front-month’s closing low in late April,” Rubin noted in the report.
“Yesterday’s rally, helped by short-covering, may indicate a line in the sand – and could mark a bullish, long-term technical double-bottom pattern into summer,” he added.
In the report, Rubin pointed out that “fundamentals do not explain Monday’s dramatic sell-off or Tuesday’s rip higher”.
“Henry Hub spot prices averaged $3.15 per MMBtu yesterday. Weather shifts were relatively minor and not an important driver,” he added.
“Neither production nor LNG have exhibited exceptional swings. 2025 injection season contracts have moved only 5.7¢ since Friday,” Rubin continued.
Rubin also warned in the report that “volatility could extend” with Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly natural gas storage report, “uncertain physical markets into Memorial Day, and June options expiry and final settlement next week”.
“After near-term catalysts clear, there is a likelihood for July contract upside after it becomes the front-month next week, with newly reset bullish technicals suggesting outsized gain,” Rubin went on to state in the report.
In its latest weekly natural gas storage report at the time of writing, which was released on May 15 and included data for the week ending May 9, the EIA stated that “working gas in storage was 2,255 billion cubic feet as of Friday, May 9, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.
This represents a net increase of 110 billion cubic feet from the previous week, the EIA stated in the report, adding that “stocks were 375 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 57 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2,198 billion cubic feet”.
At 2,255 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range, the EIA noted in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report will include data for the week ending May 16.
In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Rubin said the June natural gas contract “shed another 22.1¢ yesterday [Monday], testing support as low as $3.098, as indelibly weak shoulder season fundamentals continue to pummel the market”.
“The front-month has now lost 68.2¢ in six sessions, and technicals remain bearish,” Rubin added in that report.
In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin highlighted that the June natural gas contract was extending lower that morning “as weak Henry Hub spot prices exert a gravitational pull, technicals indicate further weakness, and production readings rise weekend over weekend amid ebbing pipeline maintenance”.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on May 17 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.80 per MMBtu overall in 2025. In that report, J.P. Morgan projected that the commodity would average $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4.00 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on May 16, BMI forecast that the front month natural gas Henry Hub price would average $3.2 per MMBtu this year.
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