Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to their lowest level since May as recovering refinery runs pulled barrels back into domestic processing and attacks disrupted loading at key ports.
Russia shipped 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks through August 9, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Shipments averaged just 3.25 million bpd in the latest week, down from 3.5 million bpd a week earlier.
The drop comes just days after industry sources said Russian crude and condensate production rose by roughly 100,000 bpd in July to more than 9 million bpd, helped by stronger exports and a recovery in refinery throughput.
Refineries got a brief break from Ukrainian attacks in the second half of July, allowing operators to make repairs and increase processing. More crude went into refineries instead of tankers. Ukraine shifted some attacks toward Black Sea tankers and storage facilities during that lull.
Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s main Black Sea export outlets, has recently operated at roughly half its peak crude-loading rate after attacks on tankers near the port. Turkey also temporarily restricted some Black Sea traffic. Baltic loadings at Ust-Luga were running at about half the level seen two weeks earlier.
Ukraine hit five Russian refineries during the first week of August and another two this week, raising the prospect that more crude could again be displaced from processing into exports. Russia had already planned to increase August shipments from western ports as refinery outages freed additional barrels.
Finding room for those barrels remains the problem. Tanker availability in the Black Sea is tight, port capacity is constrained, and repeated attacks are complicating loading and transit.
Year-to-date seaborne flows are still averaging 3.62 million bpd, about 280,000 bpd above last year’s average. Russia’s crude at sea fell to roughly 107 million barrels as shipments slowed while deliveries to India remained strong.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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