Russia’s fuel oil exports to Asia are set for a third consecutive month of declines in January as the U.S. sanctions deter buyers and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure reduce shipments.
So far this month, Russia has exported around 246,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fuel oil to Asia, according to vessel-tracking data by Kpler cited by Reuters.
These lower Russian shipments, on track for a third straight month of declines, combine with reduced exports of fuel oil from Venezuela amid the U.S. blockade and could tighten the high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) market in Asia, analysts say. Fuel oil is used as ship fuel and feedstock for refineries.
Due to the U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, scrutiny of Russian cargoes and sales has intensified, and buyers are steering clear of potentially sanctioned supplies.
“Buyers are unwilling to take on risks given the strong sanction monitoring and penalties,” LSEG senior analyst Emril Jamil told Reuters.
In addition, refinery output in Russia has crumbled in recent months, due to Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and shipments from the Black Sea ports have also declined due to severe winter storms and Ukrainian drone attacks on loading terminals.
In 2025, crude oil deliveries to Russia’s refineries slumped to the lowest level in at least 15 years, mostly due to unplanned outages in the second half of the year following intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on key Russian energy infrastructure.
Last year, crude supply to Russia’s refineries slumped to 228.34 million tons. The decline in deliveries also led to lower crude processing rates, which dropped by 1.7% in 2025 from a year earlier, according to data cited by Russian daily Kommersant.
The Russian industry expects the lower processing rates and fuel output to continue, due to the risk of further refinery outages and little economic incentive to boost processing, Kommersant reported last week.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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