Saudi Arabia has shipped roughly 34 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz since the June 17 ceasefire, according to Kpler cargo-tracking data, even though only about 27 commercial vessels per day have been transiting the waterway with active AIS signals, according to IMF PortWatch.
Commercial traffic remains at roughly one-third of its pre-war level of about 84 daily vessel transits, even as crude exports continue to recover. On July 4, only 25 vessels crossed the strait with active AIS transmissions, while Bloomberg reported that four outbound tankers reversed course after receiving radio warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Much of the oil now moving through Hormuz is being transported by state-backed fleets operating under sovereign insurance arrangements or by vessels limiting or disabling AIS transmissions. Independent tanker operators, which normally carry a significant share of the world’s seaborne crude, continue to face war-risk insurance premiums that remain roughly eight times higher than before the conflict, according to Bloomberg.
The uneven recovery has allowed major Gulf exporters to restore oil shipments more quickly than commercial shipping traffic. Saudi Arabia has sharply increased exports since the ceasefire, while the UAE has also accelerated production after leaving OPEC and expanded sales into Asian markets as additional Gulf crude returns to global buyers.
Traffic through the strait has gradually improved from the near standstill seen during the height of the conflict, but it remains well below historical levels. Several Gulf producers have also expanded the use of pipelines that bypass Hormuz altogether, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, reducing dependence on the waterway even as exports continue to recover.
Iran has said it intends to charge vessels for services provided in the Strait of Hormuz, although officials have said the fees would not be structured as transit tolls. Ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said countries considered friendly to Iran, including China, would receive special consideration under the new regime.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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