Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to a new record high, according to the world’s single largest crude exporter, Saudi oil giant Aramco.
The rise in demand will be chiefly thanks to increased use of oil in the transportation and petrochemical sectors, Saudi Aramco’s president and chief executive officer Amin Nasser said on the 2025 earnings call on Tuesday.
OPEC’s monthly report for February points to 1.4 million bpd growth expected for 2026, but the cartel may recalibrate some forecasts in the March report due out on Wednesday, March 11.
Before the Middle East war erupted, OPEC in February expected oil demand to be supported by “strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.”
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Moreover, capacity additions and petrochemical margins are expected to continue to contribute to growth, OPEC said last month.
However, after the oil price spike and the even greater surge in jet fuel prices and refining margins, aviation fuel prices have jumped and could weigh on consumer demand.
Also on Aramco’s earnings call, Nasser said that the oil market could experience “catastrophic consequences” if the halt to Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic continues.
“There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets and the longer the disruption goes on, and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” Nasser said, as carried by Reuters.
The oil flow disruption will accelerate the pace of drawdowns at global inventories, which are already at a five-year low, Nasser said.
The major disruption to oil supply at the Strait of Hormuz will have spillover effects not only on energy supply and markets, but also on the agriculture, aviation, and automotive sectors, among others, Aramco’s top executive added.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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