Saudi Oil Exports to China and India Set to Fall Amid War Disruptions

Saudi crude oil exports to its two biggest clients, India and China, are on course to decline in April because of the production disruptions in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported earlier today, citing traders.

The traders said Saudi oil exports to the Chinese market were seen at some 40 million barrels, down from 48 million barrels shipped to the world’s top importer in February. Shipments to India were seen at around 23 million barrels, the Bloomberg sources said. That would be down from between 25 and 28 million barrels in February, based on figures from Vortexa and Kpler, the publication noted.

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Saudi oil giant Aramco had notified customers of term supply in Asia that they would receive in April only the flagship Arab Light grade loaded at the Yanbu export port on the Red Sea. So far in March, Saudi Aramco has exported about 4.355 million barrels per day of crude, according to Kpler data. This is way below the 7.1 million bpd in exports in February.

Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz in the east to the port of Yanbu in the west via the East-West pipeline. Last week, loadings from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels daily, with tankers essentially standing in line to load Saudi crude from the Red Sea port. Data from Kpler, quoted earlier this week by Reuters, suggested that the daily loading rates at Saudi oil export terminals since the start of the month have averaged 4.355 million barrels. Loadings from Yanbu specifically are seen at an average of 3.8 million barrels daily, which would be an all-time high.

Clearly, the rerouting has not been enough to offset the Strait of Hormuz disruption, hence the two consecutive months of lower shipments to India and China, both of which have tapped temporarily de-sanctioned Russian barrels at sea.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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