Non-OPEC crude production will begin to decline at oil prices at $60 per barrel and lower, Patrick Pouyanne, the chief executive of supermajor TotalEnergies, said on Tuesday.
“There is a point at $60 per barrel where we’ll see the shale industry beginning to slow down,” Pouyanne said on the sidelines of the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, as carried by Reuters.
“Our view is that from mid-2026 non-OPEC supply will be much lower, no growth, and then OPEC will be regaining control of the market,” TotalEnergies’ top executive said.
Executives at major U.S. shale producers warned months ago that $60 per barrel and below is a price that would begin eroding American shale output growth.
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum today that “At $60-$65 a barrel WTI oil prices, the US is probably plateau-ish.”
U.S. oil output could grow by between 300,000 barrels per day and 400,000 bpd this year, Lance said.
“But if prices stay at $60 or go into the $50s you probably are plateauing or slightly declining,” the ConocoPhillips executive added.
As of early on Tuesday, the WTI Crude price was below $60 per barrel, trading at $58, down by 2.3% on the day.
The U.S. crude benchmark fell on Friday below $60 a barrel for the first time since May, on the back of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal and the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.
The last time WTI fell below $60 per barrel, U.S. shale executives warned that prices that low would result in declining production and no “drill, baby, drill” would be taking place despite the U.S. Administration’s wishful slogans.
ConocoPhillips’ Lance said in May that U.S. shale production would likely plateau if WTI Crude oil prices remain in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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