Traders Go All-In on Middle East Oil as Sanctions Reshape Market

Oil traders are making big moves in the Brent-Dubai spread, a contract that lets them bet on the price gap between Middle Eastern crude and global benchmark Brent. The action has hit record levels, thanks to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil that are forcing buyers to look elsewhere for supply, with the situation presenting a lucrative opportunity for traders willing to play.

This week, open interest on the Brent-Dubai contract surged to an all-time high of 448,000 contracts, Bloomberg stated on Thursday. That spike comes as Dubai crude recently hit its highest premium over Brent in at least a decade. The reason? Buyers that once relied on Russian oil are scrambling for alternatives, and many are turning to the Middle East.

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With demand soaring, Middle Eastern oil prices are climbing faster than crude from other regions. That’s creating ripple effects across the market. European refiners, who might typically buy oil from the North Sea or Kazakhstan, are seeing their usual supplies rerouted to Asia instead. Asian refiners, eager for stable and competitively priced barrels, are snapping up whatever they can get–from wherever they can get it.

For traders, Russian sanctions and Trump’s squeeze on Canada and push on OPEC is a golden opportunity. For refiners and buyers, it’s another challenge in a world where energy flows are anything but predictable.

As long as sanctions stay in place and Russian crude remains off-limits to many, expect more big bets on Middle Eastern oil and continued price swings in global crude markets.

Brent crude prices were trading up on Thursday at $77.17 (+$0.59). The latest Reuters survey published over the weekend suggested that Saudi Arabia would raise its official selling prices to Asia for March—the highest against the benchmarks since January 2024.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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