U.S. President Donald Trump gave his opinion on the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to withdraw from OPEC when fielding questions from reporters in the Oval Office during a greeting with Artemis II astronauts.
When one reporter asked what Trump thought about the UAE pulling out of OPEC, Trump responded, “I think it’s great”.
“I know him very well, Mohamed [UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan], … [he’s] very smart and he probably maybe wants to go his own way,” he added during the greeting, a video of which was posted on the White House YouTube page.
“That’s a good thing. I think … ultimately, it’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down,” he continued.
“So no, I’m … okay. They’re having some problems in OPEC,” Trump went on to state.
Talking to Rigzone, Benjamin Zycher, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Center for Science, Technology, and Energy, outlined that the UAE’s OPEC exit will increase global oil output and reduce prices “other factors held constant”.
When asked how the UAE’s exit will affect the OPEC+ group, Zycher told Rigzone that the move will reduce willingness to adhere to the formal production quotas, “already with limited effectiveness”.
“Also, [it] will increase the political rift between the Saudis and the UAE,” Zycher warned.
Offering his opinion on whether or not the UAE’s decision could be the beginning of the end for OPEC, Zycher said “the effectiveness of the production quotas will be reduced markedly” but added that OPEC “is likely to remain formally as an organization”.
In a press note sent to Rigzone recently, Wood Mackenzie noted that, according to its analysis, the UAE’s OPEC withdrawal “represents the most significant fracture in the organization’s 66 year history and increases the risk of oversupply weakening prices”.
Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, stated in the note that, “as the nation with the second-largest liquids capacity in OPEC, the UAE’s exit is momentous”.
Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in the note, “OPEC+ quotas constrained [UAE] output well below capacity”.
“In 2021, OPEC+ talks stalled as the UAE pushed for a higher baseline. The eventual compromise raised the baseline from 3.17 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day from May 2022, but only partially reflected capacity growth,” he added.
Wood Mackenzie highlighted in the note that the UAE accounted for about 14 percent of OPEC capacity and said, “even with no change in UAE production policies, OPEC’s stature has been diminished as it exerts influence over a smaller fraction of the global oil market”.
The company noted that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut in close to two million barrels per day of UAE offshore production and said the country’s ability to increase supply in 2026 is restricted, regardless of policy changes.
“Even once transit through Hormuz resumes, a return to pre-conflict production levels may take up to six months,” Wood Mackenzie revealed.
“The UAE’s exit is more likely to influence supply dynamics in 2027 and beyond. The UAE has the capability to take a growing share of global oil demand, which challenges OPEC’s current policy of unwinding its voluntary cuts,” it added.
“If tensions escalate, competition between the UAE and OPEC for market share could send medium-term oil prices sharply lower,” it continued.
In a market update sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Rystad Energy said the UAE’s decision to exit OPEC+ has drawn considerable attention from oil market participants.
“The move reflects years of tension between Abu Dhabi’s capacity expansion ambitions and the constraints of collective quota management and should be understood as a long-term strategic repositioning rather than a reactive response to near-term conditions,” Rystad said.
“Analysis from Rystad Energy views this a deliberate pivot toward capacity driven competition, with implications that extend well beyond the current period of market volatility exacerbated by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz,” it added.
In that market update, Priya Walia, Rystad Energy Vice President, Commodity Markets – Oil, said, “the UAE’s exit does not materially alter near-term supply availability” but added that it “reflects a longer-term strategic shift toward greater production flexibility as the country seeks to monetize its expanding capacity base”.
“By stepping outside the quota framework, it reshapes future expectations and weakens OPEC+’s control over spare capacity, as well as the assumption that future supply will be managed through coordinated restraint,” Walia added.
“Rather than moving cleanly in one direction, prices are likely to become more volatile, driven increasingly by geopolitical headlines rather than policy signals from OPEC+,” Walia continued.
“Further out, as the market begins to rebalance, the weakening of OPEC+ as a mechanism to coordinate supply could amplify downside risks compared with previous cycles,” Walia went on to state.
Rigzone has contacted the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and OPEC for comment on Trump and Zycher’s statements, the Wood Mackenzie press note, and Rystad’s market update. Rigzone has also contacted the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Zycher’s statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
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