In a statement posted on his Truth Social page on Monday, U.S. President Donald J. Trump reported that the U.S. and Iran had had “very good and productive conversations” over the past couple of days.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump said in the post.
“Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Trump’s Truth Social post. At the time of writing, the ministry has not responded to Rigzone.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Abdelaziz Albogdady, Market Research and Fintech Strategy Manager at FXEM, highlighted that oil prices fell after remarks from Trump indicating that U.S. forces were instructed to postpone planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.
“However, the market is likely to remain highly volatile as geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to keep traders on edge,” Albogdady warned.
“While the latest pullback reflects easing immediate fears, the overall risk environment remains elevated, limiting the scope for a sustained decline,” the FXEM representative added.
Albogdady pointed out in the analysis that disruptions to energy infrastructure and logistics are still a key driver for the market, “particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to most shipping traffic, constraining exports from one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes”.
“A prolonged restriction in flows through the waterway could tighten global supply further and renew upward pressure on prices,” Albogdady said.
Looking ahead, the analyst stated that efforts to de-escalate and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on oil prices if successful, “as the return of normal shipping activity would ease supply concerns”.
“However, risks remain skewed to the upside, and any renewed escalation or fresh threats could quickly push prices higher again, keeping volatility elevated in the near term,” Albogdady warned.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday, Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, noted that “the situation on the surface may look okay as Trump has said that there will be no attacks for the next five days and, as result, we saw massive selling off in … oil prices”.
Aslam added, however, that the sell off “didn’t last long” and warned that “the path of … least resistance for oil remain[s] to the upside”.
Aslam said in an earlier statement sent to Rigzone on Monday that crude oil’s pullback today “is not a reflection of weakening fundamentals but rather a temporary easing in geopolitical risk premium that had driven the recent rally”.
“Prices remain elevated, but mixed signals suggesting potential stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted short-term profit-taking and a partial unwind of hedging positions,” he said.
“In the absence of fresh escalation headlines or economic catalysts, the market has paused, allowing prices to retrace modestly,” he added.
Aslam went on to state, however, that underlying conditions remain unchanged.
“Demand is firm, supply is controlled, and geopolitical tensions are still elevated – indicating that this decline is corrective in nature rather than the start of a broader downtrend,” he said.
In crude market commentary sent to Rigzone on Monday by the Sparta Commodities team, Neil Crosby, head of research at the company, said “escalation between warring parties seems likely this week, but headline risk is huge and outcomes are still basically binary”.
“Some kind of backchannel peace agreement (if backchannels still exist) might yet come through in the next days before all out existential war. At which point price collapses,” Crosby added.
Crosby highlighted in the commentary that this analysis was written prior to Trump’s Truth Social post on talks.
To contact the author, email
