Liquefied natural gas has turned America into an energy export superpower, and President-elect Donald Trump wants to ship even more of the super-cooled fuel to the world.
Tightening — or just maintaining — sanctions on Russian production would help.
The outgoing US administration has taken a hard stance on President Vladimir Putin’s gas ambitions, slapping restrictions on the flagship Arctic LNG 2 facility and shadow tankers trying to move the fuel.
Unusually for such measures — which tend to work slowly — the impact has been swift. Arctic LNG 2 has struggled to find buyers for its output and is now idled, dealing a blow to Moscow’s efforts to replace its once-lucrative piped sales to Europe.
All of this is good news for US producers.
Trump, meanwhile, plans to put LNG at the heart of his government’s “drill, baby, drill” energy policy. Among first steps, the transition team is an executive order to lift Joe Biden’s moratorium on new export permits.
Gas clout is valuable in trade negotiations: LNG shipments go to many countries that have trade surpluses with America. Buyers are already talking about purchasing more US fuel, in part to deter the threat of tariffs.
Yet there’s concern among supporters of curbs on Russia that Trump — a leader who has shown little regard for precedent — has repeatedly vowed to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. And that may mean concessions on LNG restrictions.
Any relaxation of sanctions could also be bearish for prices of the fuel.
Trump’s desire to reach a deal on Ukraine won’t translate into instant pain, of course.
Sanctions are easier to impose than they are to lift, for one. Furthermore, the European Union is stepping up efforts to thwart Putin’s LNG export plans, blocking its companies from investing in new projects and readying restrictions on shadow-fleet vessels.
But the consequences for the gas market of a possible end to the war should be enough to give Trump pause.
–Stephen Stapczynski, Bloomberg News
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