U.S. oil production hit another record in September, but the bigger story in this month’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is what isn’t in the report: actual export data. Because the U.S. Census Bureau couldn’t release September trade figures during a funding lapse, the EIA had no choice but to recycle August’s export numbers and paste them into September’s balance sheet. That one missing piece ripples through nearly everything analysts try to read from the monthly series — from product supplied to implied demand to net imports. In other words, September’s “demand” number is effectively a placeholder until Census provides new data.
The production side, at least, is real. U.S. crude output in September edged up by 44,000 bpd to 13.84 million bpd — a fresh high and yet another reminder that weak prices haven’t slowed the machine much. New Mexico set another record at 2.351 million bpd, and the Gulf of Mexico climbed to just under 2 million bpd, the strongest since before the pandemic. The longer-cycle offshore projects are now doing more of the heavy lifting as the Permian approaches its comfort ceiling.
Normally, the PSM would help sort out the noise from weekly data, but with exports frozen in amber, September’s disposition tables are something close to a shrug. Product supplied will look artificially subdued, adjustments will look bigger than they should, and net imports won’t tell you much of anything. EIA says it will republish the month once Census delivers the real figures.
It’s the worst possible time for the EIA to be missing export data. The market is already obsessed with the oversupply narrative. From OPEC+ arguing about baselines, to JPMorgan warnings, from U.S. shale flattening but the Gulf filling the gap, to IEA glut forecasts. The demand picture simply isn’t real. Analysts will have to wait another cycle for the number that matters most: how much of that record production actually left the country.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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