The ratcheting up of tensions between the United States and Iran could push an already red-hot supertanker market even higher with rates soaring to the highest level since 2019, analysts say.
The daily rate for hiring a supertanker on the key Middle East-to-China route has surged threefold since the beginning of the year, to over $150,000.
That’s the highest since 2020, per data from the Baltic Exchange cited by Bloomberg.
The rally in freight rates for the very large crude carriers (VLCC) capable of carrying around 2 million barrels of crude began at the end of 2025 on the back of growing oil supply, longer voyages, and disruptions due to sanctions and altered shipping lanes.
Following a brief respite in January, the tanker rates have rebounded this month to the highest since 2020 as the market became aware of a major vessel buying spree from South Korea’s Sinokor shipping group, which is now estimated to control about a fourth of all available non-sanctioned tankers.
“VLCC rates continue to go from strength to strength,” upwards to the mid $150,000 per day for eastbound cargoes from the Middle East, shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report to February 18.
“2026 is the year of the horse – and it is galloping at full speed as far as the tanker market goes,” said Fearnleys, which sees “Very few clouds on the sky short term with Sinokor now controlling about 25% of the compliant fleet, leaving charterers with very slim pickings for alternatives.”
Fears of a potential U.S. military campaign in Iran that could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates, the shipbroker noted.
“We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday, referring to Iran.
“Military action in the Middle East will likely take VLCC rates to levels not seen since 2019,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told Bloomberg on Friday.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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