By
US natural gas futures ended lower on forecasts showing warmer weather than previously expected in the eastern US, as well as market expectations that domestic stockpiles will increase relative to seasonally normal levels in the coming weeks as demand lowers moving into spring.
Get the Latest US Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It’s FREE:
US gas storage levels, which were up by 14 billion cubic feet from the seasonal norm as of March 19, will move to a 155 bcf surplus by April 16, Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, said in a Monday note to clients.
Looking further down the price curve, the October-January spread has rapidly expanded since the war broke out in the Middle East. High production levels continue to push down October prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk is boosting the contract for delivery in January, when the northeastern US imports liquefied natural gas to supplement its scarce pipeline capacity during cold weather, according to a report from Energy Aspects.
- Futures for May delivery settled -13.8c, or -4.6%, to $2.887/mmbtu on Nymex
- The October-January spread has widened to -$1.689/mmbtu from -$1.222/mmbtu before the start of the war
Weather:
- Forecasts shifted warmer in the eastern half of the US, with above-average temperatures expected from March 30-April 3 and April 9-13: Commodity Weather Group
- See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA
Daily BNEF Gas Data:
- Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday ~113.7 bcf/day, or +5.4% y/y
- Lower-48 total gas demand on Monday ~71.2 bcf/day, or +2.4% y/y
- Dry gas exports to Mexico on Monday ~6.6 bcf/day, or -4.3% w/w
- Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Monday ~20.2 bcf/day, or +2.9% w/w
Gas Market News:
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Share This:
More News Articles
