The next high-stakes move which will test the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict will see the US impose of blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz today (13 April).
The US Central Command (Centcom) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting ports at 10am eastern time.
It will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Centcom forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
It said additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.
All mariners are advised to monitor notice to mariners broadcasts and contact US naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.
Mark Chadwick, Principal Lecturer, Nottingham Law School, said the gradual erosion of transit rights under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) presents risks, particularly if interference and bilateral access arrangements normalise selective or conditional transit.
“Perhaps the best thing that the US could do would be ratify UNCLOS to put its weight behind the very clear rules on innocent passage and transit passage,” he said. “However, Iran’s practice historically has been to permit ‘innocent passage’ through Hormuz and it appears to broadly recognise this right (which pre-dates UNCLOS and which was bolstered by the International Court of Justice in the 1948 Corfu Channel case).
“This gives us hope that a cooperative Iranian state would continue to once again uphold the right of passage through the strait, which is of course of profound global importance. It’s also worth noting that Iran only formally controls the northern half of the strait – a further possibility may be to look into ways in which more shipping can be facilitated through the Omani side of the Strait, with safeguards against Iranian interference.”
Crude oil prices have already spiked above $100 a barrelfollowing the collapse of peace talks and the blockade announcement. Some analysts predict a further boost of $5 to $10 per barrel.
One encouraging move has seen QatarEnergy begin a partial restart of its Ras Laffan LNG production but the facility may take anything up to five years to fully recover to pre-conflict capacity.
Global LNG and helium trade continue to be heavily impacted by the disruption. Qatar accounts for a third of the world’s helium supply.
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