In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average under $2.90 per gallon in 2026.
According to that STEO, the EIA expects the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to come in at $2.86 per gallon next year. The STEO, which highlighted that the gasoline price averaged $3.31 per gallon in 2024, sees gasoline coming in at $3.09 per gallon in 2025.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the EIA expects the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to average $3.14 per gallon in the third quarter of this year, $2.96 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.73 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $2.89 per gallon in the second quarter, $2.99 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.84 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
The STEO pointed out that the U.S. regular retail gasoline price averaged $3.10 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025 and $3.16 per gallon in the second quarter.
“Falling oil prices in our forecast lead to a drop in gasoline prices,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“We expect the U.S. average retail price for regular grade gasoline will average about $3.10 per gallon this year, down 20 cents per gallon from last year,” it added.
“Retail gasoline prices in our forecast fall to an average of $2.90 per gallon in 2026, with the annual average price falling below $3.00 per gallon in all regions except the West Coast,” it continued.
In its latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on September 16, the EIA showed a declining trend in the U.S. regular gasoline price.
That update highlighted that U.S. regular gasoline averaged $3.192 per gallon on September 8 and $3.168 per gallon on September 15. The September 15 price was $0.012 lower than the year ago price, the fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. regular gasoline price as of September 15, at $4.273 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest U.S. regular gasoline price as of September 15, at $2.774 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average regular gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.199 per gallon, as of September 19. Yesterday’s average was $3.203 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.188 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.130 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.224 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices website pointed out.
“As drivers settle into their fall routines, gas demand is going down, and eventually, pump prices should follow suit,” AAA Fuel Prices said in a statement posted on its site on September 11.
GasBuddy’s live ticking average for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.209 per gallon as of 7.20am EST on September 19. The figure was 0.4 cents up from yesterday’s average, 3.3 cents up from last week’s average, 8.2 cents up from last month’s average, and 0.4 cents down from last year’s average, GasBuddy’s website highlighted.
In a statement posted on the GasBuddy website on September 15, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that “the transition to cheaper winter gasoline begins tomorrow [September 16] across most of the nation” and added that he expects average gas prices “will continue to decline in the weeks ahead in most states – assuming hurricane season remains quiet”.
The AAA Fuel Prices website describes itself as a public service of the United States of America’s largest motoring and leisure travel membership organization. GasBuddy states on its site that its mission is “to make fuel savings easier and more accessible for everyone”.
The EIA notes on its site that it “collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment”.
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