Why is the oil price rising today?
That’s the question Rigzone asked several analysts on Friday in separate exclusive interviews.
“Crude is moving higher today on a combination of positioning and geopolitical risk heading into the weekend,” Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth in New York, told Rigzone.
“Whenever markets approach a closed period without a clear diplomatic breakthrough, traders tend to add upside protection, and we’re likely seeing some call buying and risk positioning ahead of potential weekend developments,” Babin added.
“At the same time, headlines suggesting U.S. authorized the departure of non-essential staff to leave Israel immediately and China urging citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible, are reinforcing concerns that tensions may be escalating despite recent claims of progress,” Babin continued.
“So, while some rhetoric has sounded constructive, actions on the ground are telling a more cautious story – a bit of a do as I do, not as I say dynamic,” the CIBC Private Wealth representative went on to state.
Babin told Rigzone that “this remains a market trading headline to headline” and said “the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and weekend risk is adding back a modest risk premium to crude”.
Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone that oil is up “on growing speculation that an attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure won’t be avoided”.
“It’s classic risk aversion as no one wants to be short ahead of an attack and have to ride out the price spike,” he added.
“Any attack would cause a major price spike, at least initially, and many do not want to be short if that happens,” he continued.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said oil prices are higher this morning for both WTI and Brent “in large part due to a survey that came out today of 34 economists and analysts conducted in February forecasting that Brent crude would average $63.85 per barrel in 2026, up from January’s forecast of $62.02”.
“The key to the increase sits with the concerns that a potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran could affect supplies,” Hogan told Rigzone.
“U.S. President Donald Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack in his State of the Union speech this week,” he added.
“The fear of the potential disruption of supply in current prices could eventually dissipate from crude prices if and when a peaceful resolution to the Iranian conflict come about,” he continued.
EBW Analytics Group Energy Analyst Eli Rubin told Rigzone that “risks with Iran are rising after inconclusive negotiations yesterday, with fewer traders willing to be short ahead of the weekend”.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Babin, Flynn, Hogan, and Rubin’s statements. Rigzone has also contacted Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the International Press Center of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Babin’s statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets, told Rigzone that oil prices are edging higher today as the market leans on supply side discipline from OPEC+ and elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, “both of which are keeping a firm risk premium embedded in crude”.
“At the same time, traders are positioning ahead of key inflation data, with the possibility of stronger readings reinforcing energy price pressures, creating a short-term bid despite underlying concerns about slower demand growth in 2026,” Hill added.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Friday, SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop and SEB commodities analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that .
“Brent crude traded in a large range of $69.16-72.61 per barrel along with optimism and pessimism over the ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations in Geneva yesterday,” the analysts said in the report.
“In the end it closed virtually unchanged at $70.75 per barrel (-0.1 percent). Brent crude is up one percent to $71.4 per barrel this morning as the market is getting nervous for what might happen during the weekend,” they added.
In the report, the analysts outlined four oil price scenarios, flagging prices as low as $55 per barrel and as high as $150 per barrel.
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