Why is the Trump Administration Putting Pressure on Venezuela?

Below is a look at the mix of issues that appear to be contributing to the pressure campaign.

DRUGS

The Trump administration informed Congress in October that the U.S. is in “armed conflict” with drug cartels, saying Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro plays a major role in supplying illegal drugs that kill Americans, which Maduro denies. The administration also has designated as foreign terrorist organizations Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang with prison origins, and Cartel de los Soles, a loosely defined term that emerged in the 1990s as a reference to any Venezuelan official with alleged drug links.

The U.S. Justice Department indicted Maduro himself on narcoterrorism charges in 2020, during Trump’s first term as president.

According to U.S. data, Venezuela is a transit country for cocaine bound for Europe and the U.S. and a haven for criminal groups that traffic drugs, but it is not a source for fentanyl, the drug linked to most U.S. overdoses.

TRUMP MONROE DOCTRINE

Trump this month released his National Security Strategy, arguing that the U.S. should revive the 19th century Monroe Doctrine, which declared the Western Hemisphere to be Washington’s zone of influence.

The strategy put the hemisphere at the top of Trump’s foreign policy priorities, and alludes to U.S. influence as a way to deny Beijing access to resources such as military installations and critical minerals.

As it has faced strict U.S. sanctions, Maduro’s government has signed energy and mining deals with China, as well as with Iran and Russia.29dk2902l

A pressure campaign that resulted in a more U.S.-friendly government would effectively bolster American influence in the region. The Venezuelan opposition leader, Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, said on Sunday that she “absolutely” supports Trump’s strategy. Machado said Trump has finally put Venezuela where it should be, as a priority for U.S. national security.

“We have been asking this for years, so it’s finally happening,” she said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” television show.

OIL Maduro has said Washington wants Venezuela’s oil, which it currently sells mostly to China. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves and analysts say access to oil could be a valuable bargaining chip for Maduro in his dealings with Trump, an advocate for the fossil-fuel industry.

Some Western companies, including the U.S.-based Chevron which has a special license, remain active in Venezuela. However, the country’s industry has fallen behind, with production low for the size of its reserves. Years of sanctions have also kept Venezuela from attracting investment and obtaining equipment and parts it needs.

Analysts said Venezuela’s oil reserves would be of interest to Trump, but the larger issue is a country in the hemisphere with oil and other resources that is closely allied to U.S. rivals like China and Russia.

“The idea that you have this country, with oil, and minerals, and rare earths in our hemisphere and its main allies being China and Russia, that’s something that doesn’t really fit into Trump’s view of the world,” said David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University.

CUBA

Many close political allies of Trump, including his Cuban-American secretary of state, Rubio, have long advocated for tough measures against Cuba’s Communist government. They see Maduro’s government and its oil as an essential support to Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other leaders in Havana, and hope that change in Venezuela’s government will weaken Cuba’s.

IMMIGRATION

The Trump administration has been moving to terminate the legal status of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants in the United States, pursuing the policy of “mass deportations now” that helped propel him to victory in his successful run for reelection last year.

The Venezuelan population in the United States grew by nearly 600% from 2000 to 2021, from 95,000 to 640,000, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, as the South American country faced political and economic turmoil.

Ending instability in their homeland would lessen the incentive for Venezuelans to seek new lives in the U.S.

(Reporting by Patricia Zengerle in Washington; Editing by Don Durfee and Matthew Lewis)