Your Next iPhone Could Cost $2,300—But Oil Prices Might Stay Stuck

President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are sending shockwaves through global markets, sparking concerns across industries—from tech to energy. Announced Wednesday, the new tariff package imposes a minimum 10% duty on all U.S. imports and much higher rates for countries with significant trade surpluses with the United States. China, facing a 54% tariff, is expected to be among the hardest hit.

Apple could feel the impact more than most. Analysts estimate that if the company passes the full cost of tariffs on to consumers, the price of an iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise as much as 43%, potentially pushing it close to $2,300. Apple shares fell more than 8% following the announcement—its worst single-day performance since 2020.

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Meanwhile, crude markets responded sharply to the combined effect of tariff fears and a surprise production announcement from OPEC+. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other major producers, revealed it would raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in May—triple the expected increase. The move is part of a larger plan to unwind 2.2 million bpd in production cuts.

The timing of the announcement, just as global growth fears intensify, added to market anxiety. Brent crude fell almost 7% to $69.89 per barrel, while WTI dropped more than 7% to $66.59 at 12:20 PM Central Time.

While some analysts initially speculated that tariffs might raise energy prices, the immediate market reaction suggests the opposite. Byran Bille, policy and geopolitical principle at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence told the FT that “Tariffs and general trade escalation are likely to result in higher prices and inflation…[and] will probably affect US economic growth and global economic growth”. The potential for demand destruction in some of the largest oil-importing countries appears to be outweighing any inflationary pressure from supply constraints.

Just like it stressed during its last meeting, OPEC+ has left the door open to adjust its plans if market conditions deteriorate further, with ministers expected to meet again on May 5. As recent months have shown, much can change before then

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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