More than 100 oil and gas firm executives revealed where they expect the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to be at various points in the future in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently.
The survey asked participants what they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 106 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $88 per barrel for the six month mark, $82 per barrel for the year mark, $79 per barrel for the two year mark, and $82 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey showed.
Executives from 120 oil and gas firms answered this question in the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $68 per barrel for the six month and year marks, $72 per barrel for the two year mark, and $77 per barrel for the five year mark, that survey showed. In the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 116 oil and gas firms answered the question and gave a mean response of $78 per barrel for the six month mark, $73 per barrel for the year and two year marks, and $79 per barrel for the five year mark, that survey showed.
The third quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of the year. Executives from 125 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $88.38 per barrel, the survey outlined. The low forecast was $70 per barrel, the high forecast was $126.00 per barrel, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $98.70 per barrel, the survey pointed out.
The second quarter 2026 survey also asked participants what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of the year. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $80.55 per barrel, that survey highlighted. The low forecast in this survey was $60 per barrel, the high forecast was $150.00 per barrel, and the average daily spot price during that survey was $87.27 per barrel, the survey revealed.
In the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 131 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $74.04 per barrel, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $50 per barrel, the high forecast was $135.00 per barrel, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $94.65 per barrel, the first quarter survey pointed out.
The fourth quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey was the first Dallas Fed Energy Survey which asked participants what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2026. In that survey, executives from 128 oil and gas firms answered the question and gave an average response of $62.41 per barrel, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $50 per barrel, the high forecast was $82.30 per barrel, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $59.00 per barrel, the fourth quarter survey revealed.
Special Questions
The third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked a series of price/cash related ‘special questions’.
One of these was, “how many quarters do you expect it will take for the spread between fuel prices and crude oil prices to return to 2025 levels”. Executives from 104 oil and gas firms answered this question in relation to gasoline and executives from 100 oil and gas firms answered this question in relation to diesel, according to the survey, which revealed that “more than four quarters” was the most selected response for both gasoline and diesel.
“Nearly half of executives (48 percent) expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, compared with 36 percent who anticipate the same for gasoline,” the survey stated.
Another of these questions was, “free cash flow for many exploration and production firms increased in the first three quarters of 2026 compared to the first three quarters of 2025 – where do you primarily expect your firm to allocate this additional cash flow in the coming quarters”. Executives from 76 exploration and production firms answered this question, with responses coming from 62 “small firms” and 14 “large firms”, according to the survey, which defined a small exploration and production firm as one that produced less than 10,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a large firm as one that produced 10,000 barrels per day or more during that period.
“Responses differed depending on firm size and type,” the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted.
“In the U.S., small E&P firms are greater in number, but large E&P firms make up the majority of production (more than 80 percent),” it added.
“Among large E&P firms, the majority of executives – 50 percent – expect their firm to allocate additional cash flow (largely accumulated earlier in 2026) as capital return to shareholders and/or owners,” it continued.
“Capital expenditures ranked second, selected by 21 percent of executives. By comparison, for small E&P firms, the top choice was capital expenditures, selected by 31 percent of executives, followed by debt reduction, cited by 23 percent of executives,” it went on to state.
Comments
In a comment section of the special question segment of the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, one exploration and production company said, “producers are not seeing all the benefits of the increased crude oil and gasoline prices – refiners are reaping the majority of those benefits”.
Another exploration and production company said, “we are living through wild times, but it is not the first crisis energy companies have had to weather”.
“A lot of companies have been focused on free cash flow since the pandemic and even before then, so they are now reaping the fruits of cash management via significant enhancements to free cash flow yield on producing assets,” this company added.
A separate exploration and production company warned in the special question comments section that “material and labor costs continue to rise”.
“Margins are being squeezed, and the cost of funding via debt continues to rise,” the company added.
Another exploration and production company said “a global recession could ease the pressure on prices for crude and refined products”.
Also in this comment section, one oil and gas support services firm said, “spreads between WTI, diesel, and gasoline will quickly come into equilibrium because markets will require them to”.
“Finished-product pricing will drag the price of crude oil up quickly,” this company added.
Wild Card
In another comment section of the survey, several oil and gas firms commented on the oil price.
“The Iranian conflict continues to be the wild card in the industry,” one exploration and production company said, adding, “its movement correlates with commodity prices”.
Another exploration and production company said, “we are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like”.
A separate one said “pricing volatility is near an all-time high given the backdrop of Iran”, warning that “swings of $5, $10 and $20 up or down are common” and that “it is very challenging to select a planning price or budgeting price”.
“It sure would be nice to have a less volatile market,” another exploration and production firm said in the third quarter survey.
A separate exploration and production company noted that “uncertainty on prices caused some concern” but added that “with increased cash flow” the business was “spending more”.
“There is still too much chaos,” a separate company said but added that “it is leading to a bullish oil price sentiment because of all of the ramifications of what has taken place in the Middle East”.
Also in the survey, one oil and gas support services firm said that $100 per barrel oil was helping its pricing as an oil field service company but warned that “it is not enough”.
“Roughly 75 percent of our earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization will have to be spent on capital spending to upgrade equipment to meet our customers’ requirements,” the company said.
“These upgrades are allowing our customers to make record wells and drill less wells to capture the same production. We are working our way out of a job. Service rates need to go up more to justify the capital we are investing in the business,” it added.
Another support services firm said operators “are significantly more profitable due to commodity prices” but warned that “due to limitations on growth and bottlenecks in bringing new wells online, there is little to no growth in demand”.
The executive of a separate support services company said the price for WTI at the end of 2026 “is dependent on multiple factors outside of normal market dynamics or the desires of the United States government”.
“Where I do have confidence is in the bottom end of the crude oil price range not being $55 per barrel. It has moved to $65-$70, at least for the next year or two,” the executive added.
Another support services firm said “geopolitical uncertainty seems to still be holding activity back”.
“The question is: Where will the new floor sit after the Middle East calms down? Although with WTI in the $90s per barrel and pushing $100, if prices stay here for the next month, that will hopefully be a strong motivator,” this company added.
A separate support services firm executive warned in this comment section that their “oil price crystal ball broke when the administration first hit Iran”.
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