Is $100 oil possible this year?
That was the question Rigzone asked Carole Nakhle, the Chief Executive Officer of London based consultancy Crystol Energy.
Responding to the question, Nakhle said “anything is possible”, but added that “the likelihood of a $100 oil price is very slim under existing market conditions”.
“Unless we have a major disruption to supply, I don’t see how that is possible, especially when demand is not booming and unlikely to suddenly do so this year,” Nakhle told Rigzone.
, the head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, analysts at the company, including Kaneva, said “based on numerous recent discussions with institutional and corporate clients”, they “conclude that the sentiment on oil is neutral to optimistic, particularly within the corporate community”.
“Money managers increased their net-long positions in Nymex WTI to the highest level since late January last week, while short positions in Brent fell by the most since October,” the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in that note.
“Brent’s prompt spread hit its strongest level since January, and open interest on Brent climbed to a new record, with Brent September $95 calls trading more than 10,000 times last Tuesday,” they added.
The J.P. Morgan research note showed that the company is projecting that Brent crude oil will average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026.
According to the note, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $67 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $63 per barrel in the third quarter, $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $55 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $57 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on Tuesday showed that Standard Chartered sees the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price averaging $77 per barrel this year and $85 per barrel next year.
In that report, Standard Chartered projected that the commodity will average $73 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $77 per barrel in the third quarter, $82 per barrel in the third quarter, $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $83 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and $84 per barrel in the second quarter of next year.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group this morning, BMI projected that the front month Brent crude price will average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $71 per barrel in 2026.
Crystol Energy was founded in 2012 by Nakhle, the company’s site highlights. The site notes that Crystol’s “tailored advice, client-focused training, and bespoke research cover the whole spectrum of world energy markets, policy, and geopolitics”.
Nakhle is described on Crystol’s site as “an international authority on global energy issues, in particular in the fields of policy, finance, market development, governance, energy taxes, and fiscal regimes, as well as geopolitics”.
On its site, J.P. Morgan describes itself as a leading global financial services firm with assets of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide. The company has “a legacy dating back to 1799”, its site points out.
Standard Chartered describes itself on its site as “a global bank connecting corporate, institutional, and affluent clients to a network that offers unique access to sustainable growth opportunities across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East”.
BMI is a Fitch Solutions company. BMI offers “in-depth data and research for over 200 markets and more than 20 industries”, Fitch Solutions’ website outlines.
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