WTI oil prices are set to average $58.30 per barrel this year, amid rising OPEC+ and U.S. production and relatively stable global oil demand, a survey of banks by law firm Haynes Boone showed on Wednesday.
A total of 28 banks – a record high number – participated in Haynes Boone’s Spring 2025 Energy Bank Price Deck Survey, now in its 12th year. The banks on average expect WTI Crude prices to average $58.30 per barrel in 2025, down from $61.89 a barrel expected in Haynes Boone’s Fall 2024 survey.
The banks’ reduction of the forecast could be explained with the $10 a barrel price slump in April, the law firm said.
The Spring 2025 survey shows about a $1.50 a barrel decrease in year-to-year projected prices compared to the Fall 2024 survey, but follows a similar path with average oil prices remaining in the $56.24–$57.24 per barrel range through 2034.
“This general decrease in oil prices may be attributable to increased production volume expectations stemming from enhanced OPEC production and the Trump administration’s pro-production and deregulation agenda, interacting with relatively unchanged global oil demand forecasts,” Haynes Boone said.
Banks are unmoved by the short-term U.S. trade policy and other noise factors and prefer to focus on market fundamentals, according to the law firm.
“The drop in April had to be factored in, but banks are not letting short-term volatility drive their long-term thinking,” Energy Practice Group Partner Kim Mai said.
“The results suggest that banks believe the underlying supply-demand dynamics will generally rebalance over time. It’s a vote of confidence in market fundamentals during a volatile policy environment.”
Moreover, the banks’ price deck “is always a little bit lower than market prices because banks are conservative in their projections,” Mai told Bloomberg, commenting on the survey.
Early on Wednesday, WTI prices were trading at around $63 per barrel, which is about the same as the breakeven price for drilling a new well for many U.S. shale producers.
U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI oil prices remain in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s, ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said last month.
Executives said in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in Q1 indicated that their companies need an average $65 per barrel to profitably drill a new well.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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