Crude prices are technically higher today, but the market mood feels anything but bullish. WTI is clinging to $75.60 (+0.61%), but that masks a sharper intraday reversal that saw prices tumble from above $77 earlier in the session. Brent is faring better at $78.85 (+2.80%), and is missing the sharp pullback seen in the US benchmark.
Much of the morning rally was driven by the drumbeat of possible U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran war. But once the White House clarified that President Trump hasn’t made a decision—and won’t for another two weeks—oil bulls hit the brakes hard.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement from President Trump saying he’s weighing his options based on the potential for diplomacy with Tehran. The President’s position amounts to maybe peace, maybe war, maybe nothing. In the meantime, Israel has already escalated, bombing Iranian nuclear sites Thursday, and Iran has fired back with drones and missiles following a deadly strike on an Israeli.
“Based on the fact that there is a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future — I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” President Trump’s statement, read aloud by Leavitt, said.
Leavitt said the President is interested in a diplomatic solution but won’t tolerate Iran getting a nuclear weapon. The U.S., she said, believes Iran is closer than ever.
The oil market, on the other hand, seems to believe the saber-rattling is more style than substance—for now. Today’s price action reflects that: initial panic, then a collective shrug. Traders may not be betting on a war yet, but they’re not ruling out another price jolt if Trump stops playing coy.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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