Total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, is projected to average 13.41 million barrels per day this year in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO) – but where will this oil come from?
Well, in its latest STEO, which was released on August 12, the EIA forecast that 11.15 million barrels per day of the projected total figure of 13.41 million barrels per day will come from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America.
Of this 11.15 million barrel per day figure, 6.53 million barrels per day will come from the Permian region, 1.18 million barrels per day will come from the Bakken region, 1.13 million barrels per day will come from the Eagle Ford region, 0.19 million barrels per day will come from the Appalachian region, 0.03 will come from the Haynesville region, and 2.09 million barrels per day will come from the rest of the Lower 48 states, the EIA projected in the STEO.
The EIA expects the Federal Gulf of America to produce 1.83 million barrels per day of the total 2025 figure and Alaska to produce 0.43 million barrels per day of this year’s total U.S. crude oil production figure, the August STEO showed.
The EIA’s latest STEO highlighted that total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaged 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024.
Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, produced 11.02 million barrels per day of that figure, the report pointed out. Of this 11.02 million barrel per day figure, 6.30 million barrels per day came from the Permian region, 1.23 million barrels per day came from the Bakken region, 1.16 million barrels per day came from the Eagle Ford region, 0.16 million barrels per day came from the Appalachia region, 0.03 million barrels per day came from the Haynesville region, and 2.15 million barrels per day came from the rest of the Lower 48 states, the EIA’s August STEO highlighted.
The Federal Gulf of America provided 1.77 million barrels per day of the total 2024 U.S. crude oil production figure, and Alaska produced 0.42 million barrels per day, the EIA’s latest STEO showed.
Quarterly Breakdown
In its August STEO, the EIA projected that total U.S. crude oil output will average 13.39 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year and 13.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This production came in at 13.28 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the EIA’s latest STEO highlighted.
The EIA projected in the STEO that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.16 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 11.20 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Production from this segment was 11.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 11.19 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the STEO pointed out.
Federal Gulf of America production is forecast in the STEO to average 1.82 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.86 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Alaska output is projected to come in at 0.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 0.44 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, in the STEO.
The STEO showed that Federal Gulf of America production averaged 1.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 1.84 million barrels per day in the second quarter. It pointed out that Alaska production came in at 0.44 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 0.43 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
The EIA’s August STEO outlined that its Federal Gulf of America production figures comprise crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of America. It also highlighted that its Lower 48 states regional production figures are based on geographic regions and not geologic formations.
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