World petroleum and other liquid fuels production will come in higher than consumption in 2025 and 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9.
In this STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production will average 105.54 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.64 million barrels per day in 2026. The STEO expects crude oil to make up 78.39 million barrels per day of the 2025 figure and 78.90 million barrels per day of the 2026 figure, and other liquids to make up 27.15 million barrels per day of the 2025 total world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 27.74 million barrels per day of 2026’s total figure.
The EIA sees world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption averaging 103.81 million barrels per day this year and 105.09 million barrels per day next year in its September STEO.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production averaged 103.19 million barrels per day in 2024. It showed that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption averaged 102.91 million barrels per day last year.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production would average 105.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.35 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO forecast that crude oil would make up 78.34 million barrels per day of the total 2025 world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 78.82 million barrels per day of the total 2026 figure. In that STEO, other liquids were projected to make up 27.01 million barrels per day of this year’s total world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 27.53 million barrels per day of next year’s total figure.
In its August STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would average 103.72 million barrels per day this year and 104.91 million barrels per day next year.
The EIA’s July STEO forecast that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production would average 104.61 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.72 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO projected that crude oil would make up 77.66 million barrels per day of the total 2025 world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 78.19 million barrels per day of the total 2026 figure. In that STEO, other liquids were projected to make up 26.95 million barrels per day of this year’s total world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 27.54 million barrels per day of next year’s total figure.
In its July STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would average 103.54 million barrels per day this year and 104.59 million barrels per day next year.
“The planned increases to OPEC+ production and strong supply growth outside of the group continue to drive global liquid fuels production growth in our forecast,” the EIA said in its September STEO.
“Global liquid fuels production increases by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 in our forecast,” it added.
“We expect countries outside of OPEC+ will increase total liquid fuels production growth by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2026, most of the overall growth,” it continued.
“Forecast global liquid fuels consumption increases by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.
“Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries, which together grow by 1.0 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, while OECD consumption decreases by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and grows by 0.2 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA went on to state.
In its STEOs, the EIA highlighted that its world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids. Differences in the reported historical production data across countries could result in some inconsistencies in the delineation between crude oil and other liquid fuels, the EIA noted in its STEOs.
The EIA also stated in its STEOs that consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is the same as ‘petroleum product supplied’, defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (DOE/EIA-0109). Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is ‘apparent consumption’, which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering, the EIA added in its STEOs.
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