By Henry Joyce
Hydrogen has become the poster child of the energy transition. Governments tout it as a universal solution, investors pour billions into projects, and oil majors reposition themselves as hydrogen champions. But hype and reality remain far apart.
The promise
Hydrogen can decarbonize sectors like steel, cement, and shipping that are hard to electrify. “Green hydrogen,” made via electrolysis powered by renewables, is especially appealing as a zero-carbon fuel.
The hurdles
Costs remain stubbornly high. Producing green hydrogen costs 3–5 times more than fossil alternatives. Electrolyzer supply chains are immature, and renewable power capacity is not sufficient to scale.
Transport challenge
Shipping hydrogen is a headache. Liquefaction requires cooling to –253°C, an energy-intensive process. Alternatives like ammonia or methanol introduce new safety and infrastructure requirements.
Market readiness
End-use markets are not yet developed. Industrial users are cautious, and infrastructure for hydrogen fueling is scarce. Early projects are heavily subsidized and not commercially viable.
The likely trajectory
Hydrogen will play a role, but not as quickly as advocates suggest. Most analysts see meaningful scale only in the 2030s. Until then, hydrogen risks being more of a policy buzzword than an industrial backbone.
Hydrogen deserves investment, but with sober expectations. Policymakers should focus on realistic pilot projects, not grand visions that overpromise. The energy transition needs patience as well as ambition.
