North Dakota Oil Output Likely Up in September But Set For Long-Term Downtrend, Regulator Says

By Georgina McCartney

(Reuters) – HOUSTON, Oct 24 – North Dakota oil production is expected to have climbed slightly in September but is on track to fall in the longer term as wells undergo a natural decline, the state regulator said on Friday.

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North Dakota is home to the Bakken oilfield, a massive shale field that helped push the U.S. to become the world’s largest oil producer. The region is facing a wave of consolidation and its wells are maturing, hitting production in the third-largest oil-producing state.

Oil production in the state fell 10,000 barrels per day to 1.153 million bpd in August, monthly data from the state Industrial Commission showed on Friday.

“We have cautious optimism for September and October,” said Justin Kringstad, director of North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

North Dakota has 28 active rigs, up from 27 in September, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources on Friday.

“There are operators that dropped a rig or two in the last couple of months and those rigs got picked up by other operators,” said Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Thirteen hydraulic fracturing crews are operating in the state, up from 12 in September.

The well count in the state has continued to hit highs, but the longer-term production outlook due to the natural decline of the wells is flat to slightly negative, Anderson said.

North Dakota breakeven prices, the amount needed by companies to turn a profit, range from $40 to $65 a barrel, Anderson said, adding that a lot of rigs are now set up just outside of the basin’s core, where the breakeven is closer to $55 to $60 a barrel.

“Rigs have moved from the heart of the basin and we are seeing longer laterals,” said Anderson.

“As the deepest parts of the basin get drilled out, operators will move out to the outer fringes and continue to push the boundaries of the basin with longer laterals and other operational efficiencies,” he added.

Three- and four-mile lateral wells now make up around 35% of wells permitted in the state.

Bakken oil delivered at Clearbrook, Minnesota, was pricing at 65 cents per barrel below West Texas Intermediate crude futures on Friday, the state regulator said.

Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Richard Chang