By Nicole Jao
- Top refiners post combined second-quarter profit of $12.6 billion
- Capital returns to shareholders hit $6.3 billion in second quarter
- TD Cowen sees Marathon and Valero each repurchasing about 20% of market value
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Top U.S. fuel makers boosted returns to shareholders in the second quarter as prolonged disruptions to crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz sent fuel prices and refining margins surging.
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Industry analysts said refiners’ massive profits and strong buyback programs were likely to continue into the third quarter, underscoring how U.S. fuel makers have been among the biggest financial beneficiaries of the Iran war.
The conflict has disrupted global energy shipping and made international buyers willing to pay more to lock in supplies. A wave of attacks on oil refineries in Russia has further tightened supplies, driving up prices for consumers who were already facing inflationary pressures.
Three of the biggest U.S. independent oil refiners, Marathon Petroleum (MPC.N), Phillips 66 (PSX.N) and Valero Energy (VLO.N), earned combined profits of $12.6 billion in the quarter, the most since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2022.
“To say that they made a lot of cash is an understatement,” said Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Simon Wong.
The three refiners returned $6.3 billion to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends in the second quarter, according to Reuters calculations, the largest amount in more than two years.
That compares with $2.6 billion returned during the same quarter a year ago, when profits totaled $2.9 billion.
“We think the buyback programs will continue to be pretty robust for Valero and Marathon,” said Jason Gabelman, an analyst at TD Cowen.
Gabelman estimated that the two refiners will repurchase about 20% of their market value between the third quarter and the end of next year. Marathon is valued at about $91.3 billion while Valero is valued at around $90.1 billion.
Phillips 66, with its greater focus on growth investments and debt reduction, is expected to repurchase roughly 10% of its market value of $81.2 billion, Gabelman said.
In July, Phillips 66’s board of directors approved a $10 billion increase to its share repurchase program. Valero Energy authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program in addition to the remaining capacity under a prior $2.5 billion program, a filing showed. Smaller rival HF Sinclair (DINO.N) raised its quarterly dividend by 5%.
Year-to-date, shares of Marathon, the top U.S. refiner by volume, are up around 110% to about $342 on Wednesday. Shares of Valero, the second-largest U.S. refiner by capacity, are up more than 98%, while shares of Phillips 66 are up about 75%. That compares with the S&P 500 energy sector’s (.SPNY) 36% increase so far this year.
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Disruptions to fuel supply that have tightened global inventories have pushed U.S. gasoline and diesel crack spreads, a measure of refiner profitability, to record levels.
The ultra-low sulfur diesel futures crack spread jumped to a record high of $93.84 per barrel on August 10. The U.S. gasoline futures crack spread rose to $60 per barrel on July 17, its highest level since April 2020.
The U.S. average price at the pump rose above $4 a gallon at the end of March for the first time in more than three years, the sharpest monthly rise in decades.
Refining executives were cautiously optimistic heading into the second half of the year, which typically experiences seasonal weakness when gasoline and heating oil demand transition between peak summer driving and winter heating seasons.
Product margins remain robust, but have eased from the stronger levels seen in the second quarter and the early part of the current quarter, Rick Hessling, chief commercial officer of Marathon, said during a call with investors earlier this month.
Valero benefited from strong jet fuel margins in the second quarter, but that support has been absent so far in the third quarter, said Gary Simmons, chief operating officer at Valero Energy. However, an arbitrage opportunity has reopened for jet fuel exports to Europe, he said, and the company expects jet fuel margins to strengthen over the remainder of the quarter as refiners switch to winter diesel specifications.
“I suspect we’ll start to see jet strengthen as we move throughout the quarter,” Simmons said.
Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York; Editing by Liz Hampton and Nia Williams
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