Oil Glut Will ‘Moderate’ Prices After Recent Gains, Birol Says

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Oil prices are expected to “moderate” because of ample supply, according to the International Energy Agency.

“I don’t expect a major shake-up in the oil markets thanks to growing production coming from the Americas,” OPEC+’s change in policy to increase output and slowing demand growth, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Jennifer Zabasajja on Bloomberg Television. “As a result of all these trends I expect moderate oil prices in the next days and weeks to come.”

Speculation that the US and China will reach a trade deal this week will only provide a “slight boost” to oil prices, barring any other major geopolitical events, he said.

The oil market will be in surplus as output from the “American quintet” — the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina — outpaces the growth in demand, largely driven by China’s pivot away from heavy industry and combustion vehicles, Birol said. The IEA raised its estimate for a record oil glut in 2026 earlier this month.

Crude prices jumped almost 8% last week after fresh US sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers triggered concerns over physical flows. Refiners in India, a major market for Russian oil, said they’d stop buying while some in China also hit the panic button.

— With assistance from Jennifer Zabasajja

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