UAE Dismisses Fears of Oil Glut

The United Arab Emirates doesn’t expect oversupply on the oil market as demand remains solid, the energy minister of one of OPEC’s top producers said on Monday.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ producers, including the UAE, decided to pause their reversal of the production cuts in the first quarter of 2026, after a small increase in December.

Citing “seasonality” and historically weaker demand in the first quarter of any year, OPEC said it would halt the production increases in January, February, and March.

One of the OPEC+ producers party to the deal to unwind the cuts, the UAE, remains bullish in public about global oil demand going forward.

“I’m not going to talk about an oversupply scenario. I can’t see that,” Suhail Al Mazrouei, the UAE’s Energy Minister, said at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday.

“And I think all of what we are seeing is more demand,” the minister said, as carried by Bloomberg.

The view from the UAE is broadly in line with all public statements from OPEC producers in recent weeks.

OPEC and the OPEC+ group project much more confidence than analysts and the International Energy Agency (IEA) that demand would hold up.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC remained bullish on global oil demand growth for this year and next. Global oil demand to grow by about 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 2024, and reach on average 105.1 million bpd, reflecting continued robust economic growth. The view, unchanged from the previous month’s report, is driven by expectations of 1.2 million bpd demand growth in China, India, and other Asian markets.

Next year, global oil demand is set to grow by 1.4 million bpd compared to this year, also unchanged from OPEC’s September assessment.

However, the IEA and some analysts believe we are headed to a near-record glut early next year amid surging supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers this year.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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