Russia Looks to Ramp Up Crude Flows to China Through 2033

Russia could boost its crude oil exports to China, extending existing agreements, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today, noting specifically a deal for the export of Russian crude via Kazakhstan that could be extended by 10 years until 2033.

Reuters recalls that Russia currently exports some 1.4 million barrels of Russian crude by sea and another 900,000 barrels daily by pipeline, via Kazakhstan. This is not the first time that the two have discussed boosting the pipeline flows. Indeed, earlier this year, Russia suggested it could increase the flow of oil to China via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline by 2.5 million barrels annually.

At the time, in August, Kazakhstan’s energy minister said preliminary studies on the expansion were already underway to determine whether new pumping stations needed to be built or the increase could be handled by the existing ones, using additives to make the oil flow more easily.

It seems, however, that boosting exports to China happens more easily with maritime shipments. In 2024, even though China was already a big buyer of Russian crude, flows along the Kazan route remained flat on the previous year, according to data from the Kazakh operator of the infrastructure, KazTransOil.

This week, speaking at a Russian-Chinese forum in Beijing, Novak also said that Russia already accounts for over 20% of China’s total oil imports and mentioned coal as another energy commodity where trade between the two could expand. Following the barrage of Western sanctions against Russia for the war in Ukraine, China became the biggest buyer of Russian crude.

Meanwhile, revenues from oil and gas exports in Moscow are set for a sharp drop this month amid an appreciating ruble and lower oil prices. Reuters calculated Russia would make 35% less from its hydrocarbons this month than a year ago, at some $6.63 billion. Oil and gas revenues account for about a third of Russia’s total budget revenues.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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