Global oil demand will rise by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, supported by solid economic growth, OPEC said in its monthly report ton Thursday, keeping its demand forecasts unchanged from last month.
Unlike other forecasters, investment banks, and analysts, OPEC continues to expect robust demand growth in 2026 that will be higher than the estimated increase for 2025 of about 1.3 million bpd, forecasts in the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Thursday.
Figures about the balance of supply and demand in OPEC’s report also suggest that the cartel expects a balanced market next year.
Demand for crude from the OPEC+ producers is expected at 43.0 million bpd in 2026, up by 60,000 bpd compared to the projection for 2025, OPEC said.
At the same time, crude oil production by the countries in the OPEC+ pact averaged 43.06 million bpd in November, a rise by 43,000 bpd from October, compared to the available secondary sources in OPEC’s report.
After December, OPEC+ producers will be pausing their targeted monthly production increases during the first quarter of 2026.
OPEC expects rival non-OPEC+ oil supply to grow by about 600,000 bpd next year, versus growth of some 1 million bpd expected for 2025.
The rise in non-OPEC+ output is expected to be driven by offshore start-ups across Latin America and the Gulf of Mexico, increased NGLs production in the U.S., Argentina’s tight oil production, and the scaling of oil sands projects in Canada. Latin America is projected to lead non-OPEC+ growth, accounting for about two-thirds of the total, followed by Canada and the U.S.
This projection, while not new for OPEC, reiterates the cartel’s view that U.S. oil production growth will slow down next year.
Signals have started to emerge in the shale patch and from industry executives that WTI crude prices below the $60 per barrel mark will put the brakes on America’s shale growth.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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