Summary
- Benchmark prices hit multi-month highs this week
- Significant price volatility remains likely, say BMI analysts
- Underlying balance still points to ample supply, says Phillip Nova analyst
(Reuters) – Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a U.S. military strike against Iran.
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Brent crude gained 50 cents, or 0.78%, to $64.26 a barrel by 1000 GMT, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 48 cents, or 0.81%, to $59.67.
“Given the potential political upheaval in Iran, oil prices are likely to experience greater volatility as markets digest the potential for supply disruptions,” BMI analysts said in a note to clients.
Late on Thursday, Trump said that Tehran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying worries about possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
“While (Iranian supply) risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term,” IG analysts said in a client note.
“Any escalation with Iran will also raise concerns about potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint where around 20 million barrels per day passes,” they added.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
“Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply,” said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
“Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67.”
Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Helen Clark in Perth and Trixie Yap in Singapore Editing by David Goodman
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