Ukrainian Drone Strikes Push Russian Oil Supply to 15-Year Low

Crude oil deliveries to Russia’s refineries slumped in 2025 to the lowest level in at least 15 years, mostly due to unplanned outages in the second half of the year following intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on key Russian energy infrastructure. 

Last year, crude supply to Russia’s refineries slumped to 228.34 million tons. The decline in deliveries also led to lower crude processing rates, which dropped by 1.7% in 2025 from a year earlier, according to data cited by Russian daily Kommersant.

The industry expects the lower processing rates and fuel output to continue, due to the risk of further refinery outages and little economic incentive to boost processing, Kommersant reported on Tuesday. 

Analysts attributed the drop in supplies to unscheduled maintenance at refineries following “a series of external factors” in the second half of 2025, while the Russian Energy Ministry has not commented on the matter.

Russia has not publicly commented on or shared details of any refinery shutdowns or unplanned outages. 

In the second half of 2025, Ukraine intensified attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, depots, and export terminals in an escalation of the war on energy infrastructure, which has also seen Russia targeting Ukraine’s gas producing facilities and gas and power distribution networks as temperatures drop. 

At one point in September, nearly 15% of Russia’s crude processing capacity was offline and in need of repairs following drone hits. 

The key Russian oil port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea suspended oil exports for a few days in November, following a major Ukrainian attack on the port. 

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles. The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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