Saudi Arabia is publicly calling for regional stability. Peace, even. But privately, the Kingdom is pushing the White House to press on with its campaign against Iran, with oil prices comfortably above $100—a move that could very well trigger oil demand destruction.
According to multiple reports out of Washington on March 24, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been urging the Trump administration to stay the course in its campaign against Iran, framing the current conflict as a rare window to reshape the regional balance of power, worried, according to NYT sources, that a prolonged conflict could result in further attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.
MBS has even pushed for ground operations, sources suggested.
Saudi officials have denied the allegations that MBS is lobbying the White House to take a harder stance on Iran. “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began,” an official Saudi statement reads.
The White House refused to comment, the NYT said.
Brent is holding above $100 per barrel, with WTI in the low $90s, as disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz move from risk premium into actual supply constraint. Flows through the region remain impaired, and while Saudi Arabia can reroute some barrels via its East-West pipeline to Yanbu, that system maxes out well below normal export volumes. In other words, it’s softening the blow but hardly a sufficient substitute.
The higher prices help offset budget pressures and support its aggressive spending plans tied to Vision 2030. But the same disruption driving those prices is hitting The Kingdom directly, with Iranian retaliatory strikes already targeting regional energy infrastructure. A half-finished war, the sources suggest, could open Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure up to further attacks.
Washington is weighing options that range from de-escalation to more aggressive targeting of Iranian export infrastructure, including key nodes like Kharg Island. Each carries obvious risks, including one of the biggest risks of all: sustained triple-digit prices that start to threaten demand as much as they support supply-side revenues.
Saudi Arabia’s fears go beyond oil—a prolonged war could undermine investor confidence for many of the ambitious projects in the works that would transform Saudi Arabia from oil-dependent economy to global business hub.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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