Russia was all set to tighten the screws on its own oil dependence, but the oil price spike is causing it to rethink its plan.
Moscow has hit pause on planned changes to its budget rule, the mechanism designed to shield state finances from violent oil price swings. The idea was to lower the oil price threshold that determines when the National Wellbeing Fund gets tapped, forcing the government to rely less on energy windfalls.
That now looks less urgent with oil doing the heavy lifting.
As of March 24, the market is doing Russia a favor. Brent is sitting at $103.46, WTI at $92.29, both sharply higher as the Middle East conflict continues to choke flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For a petrostate running a war budget, that kind of price environment buys breathing room—at least on paper.
But this is classic Russia: long-term reform meets short-term cash, and guess which one wins.
The National Wellbeing Fund, already more than half depleted by the Ukraine war, was supposed to be protected by tightening the fiscal rule. Instead, officials are now delaying both the rule change and any asset sales tied to deficit financing. The earliest revisit is June.
Related: 5 Stocks to Buy Now That The Strait of Hormuz is Closed
Moscow knows better than anyone that oil spikes are fickle. Today’s $100-plus Brent can just as easily become tomorrow’s $70 headache—especially if high prices start denting global demand or trigger coordinated supply responses elsewhere.
There’s also the ruble to consider. A stronger currency, partly driven by oil revenues, is quietly eroding export income in local terms. Lowering the budget rule threshold would have helped offset that by reducing FX sales. Now that fix is on hold too.
So Russia is back where it always ends up—riding the oil price instead of insulating against it. The war-driven rally has eased immediate fiscal pressure, but it’s also delayed the exact reforms meant to prepare for when that pressure inevitably returns.
For now, oil is doing the job. But it’s doing it on borrowed time.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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