The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a last-ditch deal that averted President Donald Trump’s threatened escalation of the war.
Trump announced the agreement on social media Tuesday, hours after mediator Pakistan implored him to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it didn’t meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week conflict, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis.
Trump said he agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as long as Iran agrees to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The president’s announcement represents a dramatic climb-down from a bellicose social media post earlier Tuesday, in which he warned “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran didn’t give in. His threats to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants, may have amounted to war crimes if they were carried out.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement that “for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with Iran’s military and that if attacks on its territory are halted, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.”
Trump pledged that the US would assist in restarting the flow of tanker traffic in the strait. He posted on social media that he envisions “big money” will be made and America will be “loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well.”
Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire, according to a White House official. Some Arab states in the Persian Gulf reported continued attacks by Iran in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s announcement, leaving uncertainty over when the truce would take effect.
Oil fell the most in almost six years after Trump announcement of the truce, which came roughly 90 minutes before his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face a massive military bombardment.
Global benchmark Brent crude slid as much as 16 percent to $91.70 a barrel and European gas prices dropped 20 percent. MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index jumped 5.1 percent to a five-week high and equity-index futures for Wall Street gauges rose more than 2.7 percent. European stock futures surged 5.3 percent.
Both the US and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a “victory,” but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the war to a complete end, according to Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Iran says it will allow free passage for the next two weeks through the Strait of Hormuz, but in coordination with Iran’s armed forces. If the US agrees to that, that is a huge concession to Iran,” she said on Bloomberg TV.
While markets breathed a sigh of relief, the ceasefire addressed a crisis Trump helped create when the US and Israel launched the war in late February. It didn’t address his demands for limits on Iran’s nuclear, missile or drone programs. And there was no indication the US was prepared to meet Iran’s desire for a permanent agreement and the lifting of sanctions.
“It gives essentially a bit of a reprieve from the path of escalation they were on, but clearly we’re still far away from any kind of resolution to the conflict – much less the issues underlying the conflict,” said Michael Singh, who served as a senior director for the Middle East at the National Security Council during George W. Bush’s presidency.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key mediator, said Tehran, Washington and their allies had agreed to a complete ceasefire, including in Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel conflict against the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disputed that, saying the temporary deal doesn’t extend to Lebanon.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Israel, reported missile and drone attacks by Iran in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s announcement.
The US expected orders to stand down from strikes would take time to reach Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Axios reported. Such lags are typical in conflicts, with hostilities often continuing before gradually tapering off.
US forces hit military targets on Iran’s major oil export hub of Kharg Island in the early hours of Tuesday.
Trump’s social-media post had earlier set off an 11th-hour rush by mediators to resume the indirect negotiations. Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, earlier posted on social media that talks were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully” and that his country had asked Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz “for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture.”
Later Tuesday, Sharif invited all sides to Islamabad to continue negotiations. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said discussions about the next phase of talks were ongoing but “nothing is final.”
Some of Trump’s biggest backers – and strongest proponents of the attacks – expressed caution about the agreement.
“We must remember that the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation,” Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican, said on X. “Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.”
The complete terms of a possible pact weren’t disclosed. Trump only said the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, describing it as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” he said.
Trump later told AFP he believed China had encouraged Iran to negotiate and that Iran’s uranium stockpile would be “perfectly taken care of.”
Iran’s demands include its continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of its nuclear-enrichment activities, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, and a withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, according to a statement by its Supreme National Security Council carried by state media.
Much remains unclear about the ceasefire agreement. The two-week period can be extended by mutual agreement, though Iran will enter talks with “complete distrust,” its state media said.
Still, the decision to stand down – at least for now – marked the latest case of the president backing off a threat to broaden the list of military targets in Iran to include civilian infrastructure such as power plants and desalination facilities. In March, he had given Iran five days to reopen the strait or face such attacks, and then extended the deadline another 10 days.
The pattern has become so well-known that it even has its own acronym – TACO, or Trump Always Chickens Out.
Focus will now return to Hormuz and whether ships can pass safely through the vital waterway. While some vessels have made it through the strait in recent weeks, they’ve generally not been from countries Iran views as hostile or having at least tacitly supported the US and Israeli strikes.
The first two ships to attempt an exit since the announcement appear to be sailing as a pair toward Iran’s Larak and Qeshm islands on Wednesday morning, ship-tracking data show. They are the Tour 2, a US-sanctioned Suezmax that’s flagged to Iran, and NJ Earth, a Greek-owned bulk carrier.
“That is the real litmus test – whether operators in the field – ship owners, ship operators – change their behaviors, following the announcement of the ceasefire and maybe some type of reassurance that ships beyond just the already flagged Iraqis are safe,” said Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The ceasefire plan includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the strait, the Associated Press reported, citing a regional official who was directly involved in negotiations. Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction, according to the report.
Before Trump’s post, dated Brent crude, the price valuing most of the world’s real-world oil transactions, shattered all previous records, hitting $144.42 per barrel, while Brent futures, an international benchmark, traded near $109.
