Morgan Stanley Maintains Oil Price Forecasts and Predicts Slow Recovery in Supply

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(Reuters) – Morgan Stanley left its Brent crude oil price forecasts unchanged on Monday, at $110 a barrel for ​the second quarter of 2026 and $100 a ‌barrel in the third quarter, falling to $80 a barrel in 2027.

The bank said it expected oil supply chains to take ​months to normalise even if a reopening of the ​Strait of Hormuz can be achieved.


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Under its ⁠base-case scenario, exports through the Strait stay at low ​levels in April, recover about 70% of lost volumes ​between May and July, and return to steady-state levels by October.

Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel on Monday, as ​the U.S. Navy prepared to block ships to ​and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, potentially restricting Iranian ‌oil ⁠exports, after Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal to end the war.

Brent crude futures were at $102.23 a barrel by 0810 GMT and U.S. West Texas ​Intermediate traded at $103.88.

Meanwhile, ​Middle Eastern ⁠producers including Kuwait and Iraq have lifted Asia-bound official prices sharply for May.

Saudi Arabia ​set the price of its Arab Light ​crude ⁠to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average.

Analysts expect the hit to global oil ⁠production ​to flip the oil market into ​a supply deficit this year, versus pre-conflict estimates of a comfortable oversupply.

Reporting ​by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis

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