An analysis by The Guardian has revealed that the world’s largest Oil & Gas companies, as well as major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, will make an extra $234 billion in windfall profits by the end of the year if oil prices continue to average $100 per barrel. According to the exclusive report, based on Rystad Energy data, the world’s top 100 oil and gas companies recorded more than $30 million per hour in paper profits in the first month of the U.S-Israeli war in Iran that began in late February.
Oil markets remained steady on Wednesday, with Brent crude for June delivery rising 0.87% to trade at $95.60 per barrel at 8.36 am ET, while WTI crude for May delivery rose 0.65% to change hands at $91.87 per barrel.
Big Oil companies are expected to be among the war’s biggest beneficiaries, with Saudi Aramco expected to bank an extra $25.5 billion in extra profits, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. will make $12.1 billion, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is expected to book $11.0 billion while Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) will earn an extra $9.2 billion.
Russia’s oil giants are also expected to emerge as big winners, with Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil set to rake in nearly $24 billion in extra war profits by the end of the year. The analysts calculated windfall war profits by comparing free cash flow generated from oil and gas production before the war when prices were around $70 per barrel to price after the war began, when oil prices have hovered around $100/bbl.
However, higher oil prices might not necessarily translate into bigger profits for Big Oil in the final balance sheet, despite the war-time windfall. Timing and operational hits are cutting into near-term earnings even as prices surge.
Earlier in the month, ExxonMobil signaled that its first-quarter 2026 profit could be lower than the previous quarter due to massive non-cash accounting charges and production losses. According to Exxon, unusually large negative timing effects related to derivatives and shipping are expected to hit downstream earnings by $3.3 billion to $5.3 billion.
These represent trades where the physical shipment value hasn’t been recorded yet; however, the company expects this to “unwind” into material profit in later quarters. Exxon reported a 6% drop in global oil-equivalent production, with significant damage to two LNG trains in Qatar that may take years to repair. The company also expects a one-time impairment charge of $600 million to $800 million due to war-related disruptions that prevented physical shipments.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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