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17 min ago 2 min read
LNG carriers impacted by the Middle East war are expected to be the last to return to normal due to extremely high insurance risks and low risk tolerance for high-value cargoes.
The forecasts are based on latest analysis from Kpler, the commodity intelligence and analytics company.
In a ‘free passage’ resumption scenario, Kpler predicts hundreds of vessels trapped in the waterway will exit during May and June.
Thereafter tankers and dry bulk ships would set sail early July with container traffic returning to normal capacity in August.
But LNG carriers are unlikely to return to normal until September, according to Kpler.
The outlook is highly uncertain. Shipping remains heavily restricted and operators are reluctant to pass the strait given or entrapment. The Pentagon said clearing mines from the Gulf could take up to six months.
The combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around between 2026 and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.
The losses resulting from the Middle East conflict will account for around 15% of the expected global LNG supply in the next four years.
Baker Hughes recently disclosed it has received an for the main refrigerant compressor train and power generation packages across two LNG mega trains for the North Field West project.
