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12 min ago 3 min read
DNV has downgraded its long-term clean hydrogen forecast compared to its 2022 outlook, but still expects the sector to attract $3.2 trillion in cumulative investment through 2060 as efforts focus on a narrower group of hard-to-abate sectors.
The Norway-headquartered classification society expects 2050 clean hydrogen deployment will be up to 170 million tonnes per year – 45% lower than projected four years ago – after project delays, weak policy follow-through, and advances in electrification across large parts of energy systems.
Up to 130 million tonnes is expected to come from renewable electrolysis, with a further 40 million tonnes from low-carbon hydrogen production routes such as gas reforming with carbon capture.
It said over 1,500 hydrogen pilots and small-scale projects have been announced globally, but only around a third have reached final investment decision, with only a small number advancing to construction.
DNV still forecasts clean hydrogen volumes will increase 100-fold from current levels by 2060, driven largely by steelmaking, e-fuels for aviation and shipping, fertilisers, and methanol production – where electrification remains difficult or uneconomic.
The forecast shows hydrogen becoming heavily concentrated in a handful of industrial sectors. By 2060, DNV said steelmaking and aviation are each expected to account for 18% of demand, followed by maritime at 15%. Fertilisers and methanol are projected to contribute 13% each.
The revised forecast reflects from other reports, which suggest hydrogen’s economy-wide role is unlikely to emerge, with electrification displacing hydrogen in applications like mobility and heating that were once viewed as demand centres.
“The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, but it is a fragile stance,” said DNV’s CEO of Energy Systems, Ditlev Engel. “It is time for policymakers to study carefully the practical progress that has been made and to act decisively.”
It also reinforced China’s growing dominance. DNV said China will account for 35% of growth in hydrogen production and demand through 2060, supported by its large renewable energy base and dominant position in electrolyser manufacturing.
According to the report, China already controls around 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing and is on track to supply three-quarters of cumulative electrolyser capacity additions through 2050.
DNV repeatedly stressed that clean hydrogen remains fundamentally policy-driven, due to high costs compared to fossil-based alternatives.
It said the molecule will continue to depend on subsidies, mandates, contracts for difference, and carbon pricing mechanisms to support deployment.
Even by DNV’s revised outlook, the sector remains exposed to policy volatility, particularly after the rollback of hydrogen support measures in the US and implementation delays in Europe.
