The global energy transition has entered a crucial stage after the First Global Stocktake and the UAE Consensus at COP28 highlighted the urgent need for stronger climate action. Although renewable energy capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, increasing energy demand from economic growth, industrial development, urbanisation, and digitalisation is making it difficult for the world to stay on track with its climate goals. To address this challenge, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is supporting the COP30 Brazilian Presidency in launching the Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF). The initiative aims to provide practical pathways for countries to move beyond simply adding renewable energy capacity and instead redesign the global energy system in a more sustainable way.
A major focus of the roadmap is electrification, stronger grid infrastructure, and demand-side flexibility. According to IRENA’s updated 1.5°C Scenario, electricity will play a central role in replacing fossil fuels across multiple sectors. Electricity is expected to account for 35 percent of total final energy consumption by 2035 and exceed 50 percent by 2050. This shift will be mainly driven by changes in end-use sectors such as buildings, industries, and transport.
The buildings sector is expected to achieve the highest electrification rates, reaching nearly 55 percent by 2035 and crossing 75 percent by 2050. Rising urbanisation and growing cooling demand are expected to contribute significantly to this trend. The industrial sector is also projected to increase its use of electricity, while the transport sector is expected to see a major jump in electrification, increasing from around 15 percent in 2035 to over 45 percent by 2050.
To meet this rising electricity demand sustainably, renewable power capacity will need to grow substantially. IRENA estimates that global renewable energy capacity must reach 18.4 terawatts by 2035 and further expand to 38.2 terawatts by 2050. However, experts warn that increasing renewable generation alone will not be enough without parallel investments in transmission networks and energy storage systems.
The report notes that progress in grid infrastructure development has remained slow, with investment increasing by only around 9 percent recently. This level of growth is considered insufficient to support the large-scale integration of renewable energy into power systems. To maintain grid reliability and support future electricity demand, annual global investment in grid infrastructure must double from the current level of about USD 0.5 trillion to USD 1 trillion between 2026 and 2035. This figure may eventually rise to USD 1.2 trillion annually in the following years.
Energy storage will also play a critical role in balancing renewable power supply and ensuring stable electricity systems. Global installed energy storage capacity is projected to rise sharply from 416 gigawatts today to around 2,530 gigawatts by 2035.
The roadmap also highlights that different regions will face different transition challenges. Developed economies already have relatively high electrification rates, while many developing nations continue to struggle with limited infrastructure and lower access to energy. The report stresses the importance of international cooperation, cross-border electricity trade, and customised national policies to overcome these barriers.
For sectors where direct electrification remains difficult, the roadmap suggests the use of alternative clean fuels such as hydrogen, biomass, and biofuels. IRENA believes that a successful and equitable transition away from fossil fuels will require strong policy support, affordable financing, clear regulations, and coordinated global action to ensure long-term energy security and sustainable economic growth.
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