The global critical minerals market remains highly concentrated, and new threats to supply security have emerged in recent months as China has curbed exports of some rare earth elements, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
The Chinese government introduced major export controls on heavy rare earth elements last year.
Although further expanded controls have been suspended until November 2026, their full implementation – if China decides to go through with it –could put an estimated $6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk across the automotive, high-tech, defense, and energy sectors, the IEA said in its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report out today.
Furthermore, if China decides to choke its exports of key battery supply chain materials and if the battery-grade graphite trade were fully disrupted, over $300 billion per year of downstream production outside China would be at risk, the agency added.
“These developments underscore how small volumes of critical minerals underpin vast economic value and highlight the fragility of highly concentrated supply chains,” the IEA said in the report.
Despite improvements in some areas, such as targeted policies and investment support for rare earth supply chains outside China, the global critical minerals market remains heavily concentrated in leading suppliers, with China being the leader in the mining and refining of many of the metals, the international agency noted.
The IEA flagged supply concentration, export restrictions, and declining investment as key risks to critical mineral security.
“Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and are therefore vulnerable,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“Yet there are encouraging signs of progress – including in rare earth supply chains – where we see targeted policies and investment support starting to make a difference,” the official added.
“And while diversified supply can come at a higher cost, this can be viewed as a mineral security premium in a time of geopolitical uncertainty – a form of economic insurance against major supply risks,” Birol said.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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